Brian’s Utah Weblog

Comprehensive Immigration Reform isn’t going to pass in 2010.  It was introduced only because President Obama promised to try.  Congress isn’t going to advance the bill in a year when there are ten million unemployed Americans and ten million undocumented immigrants working in America.  You can explain why those two numbers don’t have any real connection but congressmen don’t want to go home to their districts before an election to explain that.

But 2010 isn’t the last chance.  Congress could try next year or the year after that.  Now it looks more and more like it might be impossible to pass a Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill.  And Utah may have been the state that made it impossible.

Not many incumbent congressmen run for reelection and lose.  Typical reelection rates range from 95% to 99%.  Many fewer still lose in a primary.  But here in Utah we’ve fired one of three congressmen and one of two senators in the past two years.  That’s the kind of record that makes congressmen and senators with their extreme job security and entitled attitudes perk up and pay attention.

When Rep. Chaffetz (R-UT3) defeated Rep. Cannon in the primary, immigration was one of the top issues.  Cannon was a leader for President Bush’s radical open borders immigration agenda.  I heard Republicans talking about Senator Bennett’s vote for the Bush immigration bill at the convention last month before they sacked him.

Now there are always other issues.  TARP passed with 75 senate votes in 2008 including Bennett and Hatch.  It and other multi-billion dollar giveaways to bankers will always pass with plenty of votes as long as Congress can be bought for money.  Whatever Tea Partiers say, being an appropriator and bringing home earmarked capital projects will always be an advantage for a senator like Bennett.  And everybody already knew that treating constituents and partners with disrespect like Cannon did was dangerous.

Comprehensive Immigration Reform is the one issue I see that would likely have passed without Utah’s primaries in 2008 and 2010 but now will face long, long odds.  It’s a classic issue where Washington elites of both parties are nearly unanimously in favor but the people are doubtful.  Usually those eventually pass quietly attached to some other bill.  This time, though, two of the most powerful men in the country have lost their jobs in consecutive elections of the most terrifying kind — primaries.

That’s going to solidify Republican opposition.  In 2006 Bush’s bill passed the Senate with 23 Republican votes.  With only a few scared Republican votes and far less than all the Democrats, the Obama Comprehensive Immigration Reform won’t pass.

Of course the national media will say it was John McCain, enthusiastic proponent of Bush Immigration Reform, who blocked the issue after reversing positions in his primary.  Especially if he loses.  But McCain is sure to take after his good buddy Joe Lieberman who lied to the public about the war through his election and went right back to being a mindless warmonger when he was back in Washington.  Once (if?) McCain is renominated in August, he’ll be a reformer again.  The real effect on congress will be the forty or more Republican senators who get the message and block any progress.  And that is the Utah effect, not McCain’s.

Meanwhile there are at least fifteen million undocumented people in our country with no right to vote, to the minimum wage, to safe working conditions, to go to the police when threatened with a crime, to form a union, to be free from discrimination and sexual harassment, to organize their communities and protect the quality of life, or to petition the government for redress of grievances.  And there’s no prospect things will get better.

It’s simple.  I’ve seen Claudia Wright campaigning and met her friends and she’s great, but she isn’t going to best Morgan Philpot in November.  Jim Matheson will.

Folks who think a Democrat without name recognition and with no intention of getting her hands dirty raising at least half a million dollars can be competitive in the Second district in a Republican year just don’t understand what R+20 means.  An R+20 district is one where a generic Republican can expect to do 20 points better than the national average in a general election.  The Second district is not a swing district like it was before the 2001 redistricting;  it’s strong Republican.

I won’t tell you that Jim Matheson is a closet liberal doing his best in red territory.  If you really listen to him, it’s obvious he’s far too smart and detailed in his convictions in favor of the neoliberal Washington Consensus to be faking it.  But he does good things for us on transit funding , nuclear testing, nuclear waste transport and cleanup, public lands conservation, keeping a Utah voice in the Democratic majority, and other local issues.

The only reason you should hope for Matheson to lose is if you think you’d be better off with a Republican working hard with big money special interests to divide your community, pave your open space, taint your air and water, impoverish your kids’ school, give your taxes to bankers, send your job overseas, and carry out the rest of the Republican platform.

I imagine there are a few Democrats who really think that.  If you’re a citizen of Washington County who loves your bucolic rural small town way of life, you might like having a Republican.  Certainly you would be better off with a representative ranting about the font on the President’s birth certificate than a smart and effective congressman working to drive multi-billion dollar water project subsidies so that developers could pound your county into the next Vegas megalopolis.  But that is the only argument you can make.  It’s not enough that Claudia Wright would be better.  You have to argue that you would actually be better off locally with a bad congressman than one whom you sometimes disagree with.

I’m disappointed in the Republican candidates.

Here in Utah, the Republican candidate usually wins statewide races.  This year we have a United States Senate seat up for election and the two candidates for the Republican nomination are reporting a week before the primary that they have raised only $218,000 and $182,000 each.  That includes all money raised for the convention and testing the waters before the primary.

* - Mike Lee’s reports have not been submitted and processed by the FEC, this data estimated based on old reports and SL Trib article

A US Senate seat is worth raising money for. When you’re so close to the Republican nomination it’s as easy as fund raising will ever get.  If you’re really qualified to manage a three trillion dollar budget, you know people who can send you a lot more money than this for such a good shot at the job. Bridgewater isn’t even trying very hard but throwing his own corporate welfare earnings into the campaign instead, which is a valid but unfortunate choice.

Polls seem to show Lee ahead so far in spite of Bridgewater’s money.

In November, you’ll have the choice of Sam Granato.  As a Democrat in Utah, he won’t find it as easy to raise money as the Republicans;  big donors prefer to give money only to the sure thing.  But he’ll work a lot harder for us.

Standard Oil of California (dba Chevron) was out in force in Liberty Park.  They had a lot of big trucks and one little canoe with a U-shaped boom trying to clean up oil slicks in the pond.  The Trib says the ducks and geese have been taken to Hogle Zoo for scrubbing.

The water looks browner and less green than I’m used to in June, but that’s probably because of all the rain we’ve been getting.

Looking at last year’s legislature, Utah Democratic Party Executive Director (and Utah politics guru) Todd Taylor asked, “Would you consider posting or sending me a list of the 58 partisan votes? It is interesting where the difference in the Parties really are versus what people think they are.”

Yes, it is interesting. Overwhelmingly the real differences are on schools and conservation of Utah’s environment.  Guns, gays, war, and tax rates aren’t as controversial in the legislature as campaign ads would have you believe.

Seven bills here focus on school funding, teacher licensing, teacher pay, classroom expenses, and the like.  Republicans want to set standards and require uniform policies;  Democrats want to respect the experience of individual teachers and support local control.

Six bills focus on public lands, water rights, outdoor quality of life, and clean air and water.  Dems want us to have clean air and water and open space;  Republicans want to defer those priorities in favor of industry and development.

Three bills each focus on access to health care, access to justice in the courts, and voting rights.

Then there are two futile message bills about abortion and one bill each on immigration, ethics in government, the right to organize a union, consumer protection, professional licensing, and attempts to reform convicted criminals.

As we see our Utah Legislature gearing up for the 2010 general session, here are the partisan voting percentages for the 2009 Senate.

The methodology for this table is explained in this post.

(Updated Tuesday because I cut off Senator Dayton’s entry cutting and pasting the first time.)

Friday I visited the credit union to update some signature cards.

The banker (what do I call a credit union banker?) asked me whom I intended to vote for for President of the United States this year. You shouldn’t offend your banker so it’s best not to discuss politics, but I can’t suppress my faith in democracy so I always just say what I believe. I told her I was looking forward to casting my ballot for Barack Obama.

“Good,” she replied. Leaning forward across her desk she lowered her voice, “I think that Hillary is a communist.”

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We rode in the Bike Week ride with the mayor as we have in previous years. Lately we’ve brought the little ones along in bicycle trailers and Trail-A-Bikes. It slows us down a bit but Rocky and the police escort kept everyone together by holding open intersections through a light cycle and keeping a modest pace at the front.

The ride has changed with Ralph Becker at the helm, though. A well-known fitness buff, our new mayor left us in the dust. Pretty soon we were hanging off the tail end of the ride with our heavy and not so aerodynamic cargo of tots. The police escort was zipping up to the front to keep the mayor’s peloton corked. We’re going to have to start training now to keep up with Blueprint Man next year.
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We biked down to the Living Treditions festival over the weekend to see art and crafts from around the world and to make fish kites with the little ones. The festival was fascinating as always, but a little more breeze would have been welcome for the kites and to cool us off.

While I was there I saw Erika George registering festival-goers to vote. Erika was elected last weekend to be an alternate delegate to the Democratic National Convention in Denver this Summer. This weekend she was out on the ground spending her weekend growing democracy.

I hope the rest of you delegates are taking the honor as seriously. I’d love to hear from you in the comments.

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My rural Utah brother in law is putting together a pick up truck. He’s also colorblind. On a recent trip to the big city — Logan — he found a new tailgate for cheap. What he couldn’t tell is that it has a beautiful hand-painted gay pride flag painted across it.

Now my brother in law is straight and he was considering painting over the design once I told him about it. I suggested it would be simpler just to put his NRA sticker up on the camper shell and dare anyone to give him any guff.

The Utah Democratic Party held our state convention at the Calvin L. Rampton Salt Palace on Friday and Saturday May 9th and 10th. It was exactly two years ago at the Jefferson Jackson dinner of 2006 that our late great governor Cal Rampton addressed the assembled Democratic Party of Utah as our keynote speaker.

This weekend we nominated Bob Springmeyer to be Utah’s next governor. Here he is looking gubernatorial with his elegant green English 3-speed. The bike comes complete with generator lights and fenders; our next governor comes complete with handsome bow tie.

The convention convened at 5:00pm on Friday May 9th. We delegates were quickly dispatched to our respective district caucuses to elect national delegates. I attended the District 1 Obama caucus room where we listened to over 30 candidates giving two minute speeches telling us why they should be national delegates for Barack Obama. Our caucus was not the largest. District 2 Obama delegates had several more candidates to consider even than we did.

One candidate had lost a son in Iraq. One organized a wildly popular event for Barack Obama to meet some of his supporters who couldn’t be $2300 donors in the short while he spent in Utah. Several talked about being Obama organizers right from the beginning when he declared for President. A few talked about the way Obama has excited the youth of America. Three or more of them were the youth of America running for delegate in their early twenties. One stood up for the reenergized motion of “people of a certain age.” One Utah law professor told the story of meeting Obama in a Chicago gymnasium many years ago where he encouraged her to aspire to and attend his alma mater of Harvard Law School, which she did.

Mayor Corroon, Mayor Becker, and Senator McCoy gave great speeches, too.

I wanted to vote for them all but we could only pick three. It was a very hard decision to make.

I had a family event in the evening and didn’t think I’d make it to the Jefferson Jackson dinner where Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer was speaking. I’d have really liked to hear Schweitzer, a great Western Democrat, but the tickets were sold out before I could be sure I had time to go. Attendees told me later that the Salt Palace sound system wasn’t working right and I might not have been able to hear him speak anyway.

The Dine-O-Round is on this week so I took Amy downtown to Caffé Molise for a fancy dinner of cappelini, garlic, vegetables, sausage, tangy goat milk cheese, gelato, and more for a very low price. You can (and should) get out and try the delights of Salt Lake City dining on the Dine-O-Round program through the 17th.

We returned to the convention after the JJ dinner to find out which delegates had been chosen and the counting was still not done. Thanks to state party executive director Todd Taylor for filling us in on the final results in the comments.

The convention excitement started early this year with an email from Senator Scott McCoy (D-SLC). (Scott is my senator and I campaigned for him.)

I know the facts in Scott’s letter to be true.

There were stories about the letter in the Salt Lake Tribune and the Deseret News. Senator McCoy engaged the commentors in the online editions of both both dailies, ably defending his position.

The flyer where Orton endorsed Jarvis didn’t mention Jarvis’ political party affiliation.

When I first saw the flyer I expected Orton had decided not to run for reelection as National Committeeman.

Of course, local analysts never believed McCoy would be in danger in the District 2 race. He won in the end by a comfortable margin. But politicians are by nature afraid of the people in election years — that’s healthy for Democracy — and Scott was right to be upset.

Bill Orton responded with a missive of his own.

Bill Orton wasn’t at the 2005 caucus where Scott McCoy was nominated to the Utah Senate and much of his description is inaccurate. Orton also makes minor mistakes in his history of Craig Axford’s involvement in the last paragraph, though the general impression of our innovative local DNC organizer is correct.

I feel like Orton also downplays his own history too much. As a Democratic congressman for six years representing a district several points more Republican than Jim Matheson’s, his record was arguably more liberal than Matheson’s. Today Matheson holds the single most Republican district represented by a Democrat in the nation; no Democrat has held a district as Republican-leaning as Orton’s was since he left. Orton also ran against the most popular governor in the nation in 2000 and came close enough to give Leavitt a scare.

He still shouldn’t have endorsed a Republican, though.

Popular and rock solid liberal Salt Lake County Councilman Joe Hatch defeated Bill Orton to become Utah’s Democratic National Committeeman Saturday May 10th at the Democratic State Convention.

So Far the district delegates:

Carlos Vasquez, Connie Neilson, Lisa Alcott, Ross Romero, Jordan Apollo Pazell, and Emily Rushton for Clinton.

Cathy Snyder, Scott McCoy, Kelvin Lynn Davis, Kurt Bestor, Theodore A Cowan Jr, C. Millicent Lewis, and Brian Spittler for Obama.

There are two more Obama delegates to announce from District 2 once the final votes are counted. Then those delegates vote for the three party leader or elected official delegates (2 Obama, 1 Clinton). Finally those delegates later tonight elect the unpledged add-on delegate. I was a bit worried how the unpledged delegate would turn out but rumor has it Chairman Wayne Holland will nominate only the Obama candidates for the position.

More to come with at-large delegates tomorrow.

Most roll call votes in the Utah legislature are unanimous. Votes are held for show on easy issues while our representatives chat with each other and lobbyists. That’s okay — it’s their job.

But on the controversial votes where not everyone is automatically voting aye, there are distinct patterns by party. Republicans are in charge of the leadership and they use the Rules committees to bring only their favorite bills to the floor. Democrats’ bills are shut out.

Let’s take a look at how hard it is to be a Democrat. Happier legislators will have more bills they can votes aye on and fewer bills they have to vote against.

The values count every vote cast by every legislator in each party through the General Session in a roll call on a bill that was not unanimous.  The ratio is the proportion of yea votes out of all aye and nay votes;  absences are not counted.

It looks like being a Republican in the Utah legislature is between 10% and 20% better than being a Democrat.  That is the additional proportion of all controversial bills that appeal to Republicans over the ones that Democrats can support.

It’s a big difference, but it could be worse.

Thanks to Rebecca Walsh of the Salt Lake Tribune for the link to Brian’s Utah Weblog. She noted my ratings of the partisanship of the Utah legislature these past few sessions. Here are a few links to those posts.

• 2008 House and Senate
• 2007 House and Senate
• 2006 House and Senate
• 2005 House and Senate

Notice that, as I was quoted saying, the Democrats are consistently more Democratic than the Republicans. Even Karen Morgan is more Democratic than Kory Holdaway. (Good news for Representative Holdaway, though; he’s often more than 50% Democratic.)

There’s an explanation of the methodology here.

Lots of fun was had at the Salt Lake County Democratic convention.

Turnout was good. Lots of candidates for national delegate positions were working the halls to build up support. They’ll be chosen in two weeks. The women candidates for Obama delegate from District 2 are working especially hard. There are almost thirty candidates for just two spots in Denver. Other delegate spots are also seeing heavy competition.

We have a very strong slate in the south end of Salt Lake Valley this year persuading the reddest part of the county to elect better government. Jay Seegmiller, Trish Beck, Karen Morgan, Laura Black, Lisa Johnson, Roger Harding, and Dave Hogue along with others I’m sure I haven’t remembered make a strong ticket. I had the chance to talk to a few of them. If you’re in the south half of the valley, get out to meet and campaign with these folks.

I was disappointed I didn’t manage to meet Hogue. He’s a former legislator who switched parties without, according to his position paper I collected, changing many issue positions. It will be very interesting to see how the race and his subsequent service turns out.

The big excitement was in Senate District One where incumbent Senator Fred Fife was replaced on our ticket by Luz Robles. Luz is going to have to keep up the level of energy and motivation she has inspired among the delegates to keep the seat in Democratic hands. Fife won the seat in a close race against a tough Republican incumbent in 2004 and, although the district leans Democratic, it won’t be easy to hold.

She has drawn the toughest possible opponent she could face in November in Republican city councilman Carlton Christensen. Christensen represents one of the most Democratic neighborhoods in the district, one of the most Democratic neighborhoods anywhere in Utah. That means Christensen will already have a big piece of Robles’s base. I look forward to seeing her win the voters’ support.

Declaring unity after the vote, here is a snapshot of future senator Luz Robles, Senator Gene Davis, Senator Ross Romero, Angela Romero, and Senator Fred Fife. Fife is promising here to work with us to elect Robles.

The Salt Lake County Democratic Convention is tomorrow at 1:00 pm at Jordan High School.  There will be the usual business and speeches.  A new chair will be appointed, almost certainly Vice Chair Weston Clark.  A new vice chair to take his position will be appointed to take his place, if necessary.

The real excitement will take place in two parts.  The issue caucuses will convene at 1:30pm.  Candidates will visit them in turn, giving speeches and answering questions for small groups of people about the issues.

Then, after the activity in the big convention room, the district nominating caucuses will convene and several will be competitive.  House district 22 will see a new representative elected.  Incumbent Carl Duckworth is retiring but his wife is seeking the seat.  Progressive Democrat Greg Schulz, who almost forced a primary in this district against the incumbent last cycle, is running again.  And William Brandt Goble is also running.  Meanwhile the Republican candidate who almost beat Duckworth in 2006 has dropped out for family reasons.  This should be very interesting.

After that, Senate district 1 will be a race between incumbent Fred Fife and challenger Luz Robles.  This area has seen controversy and close primaries ever since the passing of the late great Pete Suazo.  I know both candidates would prefer to win at convention, but the area has a very disappointing trend of miserable Democratic primary turnout and we might benefit from another chance to turn it around.  Certainly, bringing out the Democrats will be necessary in November against the formidable Republican City Councilman Carlton Christensen.